Utah State vs Air Force Prediction - College Football Picks 9/15/23

Air Force Falcons (2-0) vs Utah State Aggies (1-1)

Game Info: Friday, September 15, 2023 at 8:00 pm (Falcon Stadium)

Betting Odds: Air Force Falcons -9.5 -- Over/Under: 47 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Utah State Aggies will play the Air Force Falcons in a Mountain West game on Friday night at Falcon Stadium in Colorado. Utah State comes into this game with a 1-1 record after getting their first win last week, while Air Force has started the season 2-0.

Utah State Preview

The Utah State Aggies are 1-1 this season after they defeated Idaho State by a score of 78-28 in their last game. Utah State scored 44 points in the second quarter and led this game 51-14 at the half. The Aggies out gained Idaho State by a total of 591-424 and forced three turnovers in the win. Utah State lost to Iowa in their season opener by a score of 24-14. The Utah State offense is scoring 46 points per game with 212 passing yards per game and 248 rushing yards per game, while going 37% on third downs this year. Cooper Legas has thrown for 338 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception for the Aggies. Rahsul Faison has rushed for 154 yards and one touchdown, while Terrell Vaughn has caught 23 passes for 166 yards and three scores. The Utah State defense is allowing 26 points against per game this season.

Air Force Preview

The Air Force Falcons are 2-0 this year after they defeated Sam Houston State by a score of 13-3 in their last game. Air Force out gained Sam Houston State by a total of 258-80 and recorded 244 rushing yards in the win. Air Force defeated Robert Morris by a score of 42-7 in Week 1. The Air Force offense is averaging 30.5 points per game with 54.5 passing yards per game and 309 rushing yards per game this season, while going 47.8% on third downs. Zac Larrier has thrown for 109 yards and one touchdown, while also rushing for 164 yards and two scores for the Falcons this year. Owen Burk has rushed for 112 yards and two touchdowns, while Jared Roznos has caught two passes for 95 yards and one score. The Air Force defense is allowing 5 points against per game and absolutely dominated Sam Houston State last week. 

Air Force Falcons Team Facts

  • Air Force has won each of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Air Force has covered the spread in four of its last five September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Air Force has won the first half in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
  • Air Force has won the first quarter in eight of its last 10 games against conference opponents at Falcon Stadium.
  • Seven of Air Force's last eight games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Utah State Aggies Team Facts

  • Utah State has won each of its last four September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Utah State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
  • Utah State has lost the first half in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
  • Four of Utah State's last five September games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Air Force ranked 2nd among FBS teams for H1 points allowed per game last season (6.6).
  • Air Force ranked 2nd among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.769).

Pick

Air Force comes into this game with the home field advantage and they are looking to go 3-0. The Falcons are one of the best rushing teams once again this year, but they did struggle to put up points last week against Sam Houston State. Utah State fought hard against Iowa and only lost by ten points on the road, but I think they are in for a long day in this one. The Utah State defense will not be able to contain the Air Force rushing attack and they will dominate time of possession. I think we are going to see another lower scoring game in this matchup, and I like the under. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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