Texas State vs Baylor Prediction - College Football Picks 9/2/23

Baylor Bears (0-0) vs Texas State Bobcats (0-0)

Game Info: Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 7:00 pm (McLane Stadium)

Betting Odds: Baylor Bears -26 -- Over/Under: 59 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Texas State Bobcats and Baylor Bears face off on Saturday in a Week 1 college football showdown at McLane Stadium. 

What Baylor Team Will Show Up this Year? 

It seems whenever you start to trust Baylor is when they start to struggle and the hope is that won’t happen again this season. Last year there was a lot of hope for Baylor, but they finished with a 6-7 record. One place the team struggled last year was with the offensive line but they did a lot this offseason to improve. Campbell and Clark Barrington were brought in from BYU and they both should be big improvements. Under center for Baylor will be Blake Shapen and last year he threw for 2,790 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. On defense last year, Baylor really struggled to get off the field on third down, and that is something that is going to need to be better here. 

Baylor Betting Preview

  • Baylor has won each of its last eight home games in September.
  • Baylor has covered the spread in each of its last eight September games at McLane Stadium.
  • Baylor has won the first quarter in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents at McLane Stadium.
  • Baylor has won the first half in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents at McLane Stadium.
  • Each of Baylor's last six home openers have gone OVER the total points line.

Can Texas State Be Better?

The expectation for this Texas State team this year is that they can be a high powered offense, but that was also the expectation last year, and it just didn’t work out. The big question for Texas State right now is who will start. Malik Hornsby was brought in from Arkansas and they brought in TJ Finley who played at LSU and Auburn. CJ Rogers is also on the roster and could play a role. It wouldn’t actually be all that shocking if all three players saw the field in this game. They also have some experience out wide led by Ashtyn Hawkins. On defense last year, Texas State also wasn’t good enough, and that will need to be better here. The strength of the defense is expected to be with the linebackers. In this game it’s going to come down to the quarterback play of Texas State.

Texas State Betting Preview

  • Texas State has lost each of its last six road games.
  • Texas State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games against non-conference opponents.
  • Texas State has lost the first half in 11 of its last 13 road games against non-conference opponents.
  • Each of Texas State's last four road openers as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Baylor vs Texas State Facts

  • Baylor ranked T28th among FBS teams for Q2 points allowed per game last season (5.9).
  • Baylor ranked T33rd among FBS teams for H1 win percentage last season (.615).

Shane’s Free Pick

I’m not exactly sold on Baylor, but I am more sold on them than Texas State. I think whoever starts under center for Texas State isn’t going to be the answer, and that is going to be the difference here. Texas State’s offense is going to really struggle to move the ball. The Texas State is also going to really struggle to slow down the Baylor offense. This is going to be a game that gets ugly early. Back Baylor against the spread. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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