New Mexico State at Liberty - 11/26/22 College Football Picks and Prediction

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The New Mexico State Aggies and Liberty Flames face off on Saturday in a college football showdown at Williams Stadium. 

New Mexico State comes into this game with a 4-6 record and they have gone 5-5 against the spread. In the last game against Missouri, the defense was again an issue giving up 45 points, and that led to the 31-point victory. Two games ago against Lamar they were able to secure a 51-14 victory, and they need the offense to be good in this game. New Mexico State is averaging 19.3 points while their defense is giving up 27.5 points per game. In the last game, Diego Pavia completed 6 of his 17 passes for 76 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. In this game, they are going to need to get a lot more production from him. 

Liberty comes into this game with an 8-3 record and they have gone 5-6 against the spread. In the last game against Virginia Tech, Liberty scored 22 points, but it wasn’t enough as they were defeated by a point. In the last game quarterback, Kaidon Salter had more playing time and he completed 12 of his 18 passes for 119 yards. Liberty is averaging 29.6 points while their defense is giving up 22.7 points per game. In this game, Liberty is going to need the offense to be strong, and attack the weak defense of the Aggies. 

New Mexico State is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games. Liberty is 0-4 against the spread in their last four games against a team with a losing record. The over is 7-2 in New Mexico State’s last nine games on fieldturf. The Over is 14-6 in the Aggies last 20 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

I don’t trust this New Mexico State offense. The Aggies are averaging only 19.3 points per game and that is going to be the difference as Liberty is going to get the job done. Liberty’s defense will lockdown, and improve on their season average. Back the Flames to come away with a cover of the spread. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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