Air Force at San Diego State - 11/26/22 College Football Picks and Prediction

San Diego State Aztecs (7-4) vs Air Force Falcons (8-3)

Game Info: Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 9:00 pm (Snapdragon Stadium)

Betting Odds: San Diego State Aztecs +1 -- Over/Under: 43.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Air Force Falcons will fly down to SoCal to take on the San Diego State Aztecs from SnapDragon Stadium on CBSS. San Diego State and Air Force have met in nearly every season since 1980 in on of the Mountain West's most back-and-forth series. The Falcons lead the all-time series 19-18, but the Aztecs have won nine meetings in a row. 

Air Force is 8-3 after a home win over Colorado State in Week 12. The Falcons stuffed their in-state foes early,  jumping out to a 24-0 lead, en route to their third win in a row. Air Force is scoring 29.1 points per game, while passing for 72.6 yards per game (295th), and rushing for 337.1 ypg (2nd). The AF defense allows 21.3 points per game.

Haaziq Daniels will make his 29th start for the Academy this weekend. The senior quarterback ran a season-high 113 yards in the win over New Mexico, and he’s up to 719 passing yards, 584 rushing yards, and 15 touchdowns (6 pass, 7 rush). Brad Roberts has been an absolute workhorse this season. The senior back is as tough as nails, and he surpassed last season’s total with 184-yard performance in the win over Colorado State. Roberts is among the nations leaders with 1,425 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. John Lee Eldridge III has complimented him well with 648 yards and four scores.

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San Diego Aztecs improved to 7-4 after New Mexico in Albuquerque in Week 12. The Aztecs shut the Lobos out in the second half, and covered for the fourth time in five weeks. San Diego State is scoring 23.2 points per game, while passing for 169.4 yards per game (239th), and rushing for 164.6 ypg (109th). The SDSU defense allows 20.8 points per game.

It’s been a revolving door at quarterback for Brady Hoke, but he might have his guy in Jalen Mayden. After a pedestrian approach with seasoned vet Braxton Burmeister, Mayden’s presence and play have been the key to this late season surge for San Diego State, and he’s up to 1,533 passing yards with ten touchdowns to five interceptions in six starts.

SDSU has taken a true committee approach in the backfield this season. Senior back Jordan Byrd leads the unit with 376 rushing yards and three scores. Senior wideouts Tyrell Shavers and Jesse Matthews have come alive with some stability at the position. Shavers posted career-highs in the win over Hawaii, and he leads the team with 540 receiving yards on 31 catches. Matthews leads the team in receptions (34) and he’s scored in back-to-back games.

I love San Diego State as home underdogs here, and it’s one of my favorite spots on the slate this weekend. The Aztecs are one of the few teams outside of Army and Navy that can confidently match Air Force’s physical energy on both sides of the football. SDSU’s emerging talent at quarterback will give them an outlet the Falcons don’t have, and it gives them a nice chance to win this football game. Spot San Diego State the points Saturday night for this Mountain West clash, and with this one having hard hitting and run-heavy written all over it, don’t shy away from the logical under.

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Corey’s Pick SDSU to Cover

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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