Florida at Florida State - 11/25/22 College Football Picks and Prediction

Florida State Seminoles (8-3) vs Florida Gators (6-5)

Game Info: Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:30 pm (Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium)

Betting Odds: Florida State Seminoles -8 -- Over/Under: 58.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Florida Gators will head over to Tallahassee for their annual matchup with the Florida Seminoles this weekend from Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida and Florida State have crossed paths in every season since 1958, with their rivalry hitting a very high peak in the 90s, and often having national championship implications. The pace has slowed down a bit at both schools, but this matchup still brings the best out of both programs. Florida leads the all-time series 37-26 after winning each of the last three matchups.

Florida is 6-5 after losing to Vanderbilt in Nashville in Week 12. The Gators became the second SEC ‘power’ to fall to Vandy in as many weeks after another embarrassing output offensively.  Florida has scored 31.2 points per game, while passing for 230.2 yards per game (128h), and rushing for 209.4 ypg (31st). The UF defense is allowing 27.2 points per game.

Anthony Richardson has had a few moments this season, but his numbers last week felt like empty calories. Falling behind and having to rally versus Vanderbilt will never be impressive, and if he’s unable to show up for four quarters here, this contest could get dark early for them. The sophomore quarterback has thrown for 2,351 passing yards with 14 touchdowns to eight interceptions, and he’s ran for 613 rushing yards and nine scores through eleven starts in 2022. 

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Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne split the load alongside Richardson. Johnson has scored in all but three games this season, and after a pair of 120-yard outings in Weeks 10 and 11, he leads Florida with 742 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Etienne has scored in three of the last five games and he’s rushed for 576 yards. Xzavier Henderson paces the team with 38 receptions, while big play threat Justin Shorter leads the group with 577 receiving yards.

Florida State improved to 8-3 after defeating Louisiana at home in Week 12. The Seminoles kept rolling last weekend, dominating the Rajun Cajuns for fourth quarters, and covered the 25-point spread. Florida State scores 35.4 points per game, while passing for 256.7 yards per game (78th), and rushing for 217.6 ypg (78th). The Seminole defense allows 18.1 points per game.

Jordan Travis has really put it together here in his third year behind center. The junior quarterback tossed three touchdowns in three straight games prior to an early shower last weekend. Travis gave the Gators trouble last season in the Swamp, so he may be licking his chops here at the opportunity to deal Florida a final nail in the coffin for the 2022 season. Travis has thrown for 2,526 passing yards with 21 touchdowns to four interceptions, and he’s run for 284 rushing yards and five scores through 11 starts.

An injury to leading rusher Treshaun Ward led to Trey Benson and Lawrence Toafili taking on bigger roles. Benson set a new career-high in the win over Syracuse with 163 yards, while Toafili gained 154 all-purpose yards and scored a rushing and receiving touchdown in the win over GT. Benson is up to 854 rushing yards and three touchdowns for the season, while Toafili has gained 497 yards from scrimmage (422 rush, 266 rec) and scored six total touchdowns. ASU transfer Johnny Wilson leads FSU in receptions (33) and receiving yards (649).

This one could either get really ugly, and the visitors could shock the state with a valiant effort. I’m going to sway with the Seminoles making things dark for the Gators here. FSU has looked really sharp since a three-game skid in early October, winning each of their last four games by 25 points or more, while Florida’s comes into this one on the heels of a loss to Vanderbilt?

Florida State played no games with Miami, and we could be in for a similar type of beatdown here in Tallahassee this Friday. Take Florida State’s spread for this year’s Sunshine Showdown, as they should snap a three-game skid to the Gators here at home.

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Corey’s Pick Florida State -8

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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