Kansas State at Baylor - 11/12/22 College Football Picks and Prediction

Deuce Vaughn has been one of the most consistent backs in the country. The 5’6 back nearly matched a season-high versus the Cowboys, going for 158 yards and scoring three touchdowns. Vaughn is among Big 12 leaders with 975 rushing yards and five scores. Fifth-year wideout Malik Knowles is on pace for a new personal-best, and he leads KState with 35 receptions for 540 yards.

Baylor improved to 6-3 after defeating Oklahoma in Norman in Week 10. The Bears traveled north short-handed and outlasted the Sooners, going blow for blow with them en route to a three-point win. Baylor scores 38.3 points per game, while passing for 241.6 yards per game (113th), and rushing for 210.9 ypg (36th). The Baylor defense allows 24.5 points per game.

Blake Shapen’s first full season as a starter has had its ups and downs. His numbers haven’t been pretty over the past three weeks, but it’s translated to winning football and it’s got the Bears back in the Big 12 title picture. Shapen has thrown for 1,951 passing yards with 13 touchdowns to six interceptions through nine games.

Leading rusher Richard Reese was a workhorse, but after leaving the OU game with an injury, his status is up in the air for this weekend. Reese has rushed for 798 rushing yards and a Big 12-leading 13 touchdowns. Craig Williams stepped in and bursted for a career-high 192 yards in the win over Oklahoma. Wideout Gavin Holmes leads BU with 470 receiving yards, while tight end Ben Sims leads with 27 receptions.

Kansas State is 5-3 against the spread this season, with a 1-2 record on the road. Baylor is 5-3 against the spread this season, with a 4-1 record at home. Baylor is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.

The Big 12 standings could look extremely different around 11pm EST, as the top four teams in the conference will cross paths. The TCU/Texas matchup this weekend has an opportunity to be a prelude, unless one of these two schools can win here, and crash the party. 

Adrian Martinez has enjoyed a lengthy college career, and this may be the final time we get to bet on him as the underdog. As appealing as that may, Baylor has a date with destiny, as they ultimately control their own path with the gauntlet they have to end the season. The Bears will host KState this Saturday, before welcoming their fiercest rival TCU to town, and that’s got to have them pumped for this one. Baylor can eliminate KSU’s chances at a spot in Arlington, and put TCU in a vulnerable position atop the Big 12 standings.

They’re calling for a black out in Waco Saturday night, so let’s roll with the home team here, with aspirations of repeating as conference champions on their mind.