Kansas State at Baylor - 11/12/22 College Football Picks and Prediction

Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Kansas State Wildcats will travel to Waco and take on the Baylor Bears from McLane Stadium on FS1. Baylor and Kansas State have faced off in every year since 2013, with the Bears winning eight of ten during this span, and holding an all-time series lead of 10-9.

Kansas State dropped to 6-3 after losing to Texas at home in Week 10. The Wildcats were overwhelmed by the Longhorns early and went into the locker room down 21. Bijan Robinson gashed KSU for 200 yards, handed them their third loss, and made things complicated atop the Big 12 standings. Kansas State scores 30.6 points per game, while passing for 201.6 yards per game (198th), and rushing for 218.2 ypg (29th). The KState defense allows 19.2 points per game.

Aside from USC’s haul, Adrian Martinez may have been the best signing from the transfer portal. The former Nebraska quarterback could never get over the hump in Lincoln, but he’s figured things out here in Manhattan. He returned last weekend and totaled over 380 yards versus Texas, and he’s built to go into Waco and pull off the upset, just like he did in Norman back in Week 4. Martinez has passed for 1,236 yards with six touchdowns to one interception, and he’s rushed for 617 yards and a team-lead 10 rushing touchdowns.

Deuce Vaughn has been one of the most consistent backs in the country. The 5’6 back nearly matched a season-high versus the Cowboys, going for 158 yards and scoring three touchdowns. Vaughn is among Big 12 leaders with 975 rushing yards and five scores. Fifth-year wideout Malik Knowles is on pace for a new personal-best, and he leads KState with 35 receptions for 540 yards.

Baylor improved to 6-3 after defeating Oklahoma in Norman in Week 10. The Bears traveled north short-handed and outlasted the Sooners, going blow for blow with them en route to a three-point win. Baylor scores 38.3 points per game, while passing for 241.6 yards per game (113th), and rushing for 210.9 ypg (36th). The Baylor defense allows 24.5 points per game.

Blake Shapen’s first full season as a starter has had its ups and downs. His numbers haven’t been pretty over the past three weeks, but it’s translated to winning football and it’s got the Bears back in the Big 12 title picture. Shapen has thrown for 1,951 passing yards with 13 touchdowns to six interceptions through nine games.

Leading rusher Richard Reese was a workhorse, but after leaving the OU game with an injury, his status is up in the air for this weekend. Reese has rushed for 798 rushing yards and a Big 12-leading 13 touchdowns. Craig Williams stepped in and bursted for a career-high 192 yards in the win over Oklahoma. Wideout Gavin Holmes leads BU with 470 receiving yards, while tight end Ben Sims leads with 27 receptions.

Kansas State is 5-3 against the spread this season, with a 1-2 record on the road. Baylor is 5-3 against the spread this season, with a 4-1 record at home. Baylor is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.

The Big 12 standings could look extremely different around 11pm EST, as the top four teams in the conference will cross paths. The TCU/Texas matchup this weekend has an opportunity to be a prelude, unless one of these two schools can win here, and crash the party. 

Adrian Martinez has enjoyed a lengthy college career, and this may be the final time we get to bet on him as the underdog. As appealing as that may, Baylor has a date with destiny, as they ultimately control their own path with the gauntlet they have to end the season. The Bears will host KState this Saturday, before welcoming their fiercest rival TCU to town, and that’s got to have them pumped for this one. Baylor can eliminate KSU’s chances at a spot in Arlington, and put TCU in a vulnerable position atop the Big 12 standings.

They’re calling for a black out in Waco Saturday night, so let’s roll with the home team here, with aspirations of repeating as conference champions on their mind.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

MLB Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Sunday 7/21/24 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

18+ Has gambling become a problem for you? Call the National Problem Gambling Hotline.
1-800-522-4700 | ncpgambling.org

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.