Duke at Miami-FL - 10/22/22 College Football Picks and Prediction

Miami-FL Hurricanes (3-3) vs Duke Blue Devils (4-3)

Game Info: Saturday, October 22, 2022 at 12:30 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)

Betting Odds: Miami-FL Hurricanes -8.5 -- Over/Under: 60.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Miami will host the Duke from Hard Rock Stadium this weekend on RSN. Miami leads the all-time series 14-5 after winning the last two meetings.

Duke dropped to 4-3 after losing to arch rival North Carolina at home in Week 7. The Blue Devils took the Tar Heels to the brink, but a last-minute touchdown pass from Drake Maye would put UNC over the top. Duke scores 32.9 points per game, while passing for 228.6 yards per game (151st), and rushing for 205.9 ypg (40th).

Riley Leonard will look to finish the mission this weekend. The previous two weekend have been painful for the sophomore QB, coming up just short against Georgia Tech and UNC. Miami may be a tough spot to bounce back in, but Leonard performed well versus the Canes last season. Leonard has passed for 1,557 yards with nine touchdowns to four interceptions, and he’s rushed for a team-lead 420 yards and five scores through seven starts.

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Jaylen Coleman and Justin Waters have split the carries for Duke. Waters scored twice last weekend versus UNC, and leads the team with 363 yards rushing and six touchdowns. Coleman led the team before missing the last two games with 307 yards and four scores. Jalon Calhoun returned to the lineup and caught six passes for the fourth time this season. Calhoun leads Duke in receptions (29) and receiving yards (411), while Jordan Moore is second on the team with 27 catches for 280 yards.

Miami improved to 3-3 after defeating longtime foe Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in Week 7. The Canes shut the Hokies out for three quarters before blowing the spread in the fourth quarter. Miami scores 30.7 points per game, while passing for 321.6 yards per game (21st), and rushing for 143.9 ypg (151st).

Tyler Van Dyke has got it going at the start of ACC play. The sophomore signal caller went for a career-high 496 passing yards in the last second loss UNC, and performed well in Blacksburg, going for 351 yards and two touchdowns. Van Dyke has passed for 1,648 yards with nine touchdowns to four interceptions on the season.

Henry Parrish Jr. leads the team in rushing after coming over Ole Miss, but he’s been in and out of the lineup, making the Canes run game non-existent. Van Dyke has three primary pass catchers. Brassard Smith has been the most consistent receiver, while Frank Ladson just has really come on strong over the past four games. Tight end Will Mallory leads the team with 23 catches for 304 receiving yards.

Duke is 5-2 against the spread this season, with 2-1 at home. The over is 5-2 in Blue Devils last seven games. Miami is 1-5 against the spread this season, with a 1-3 record on the at home. The over is 4-2 in Miami's last 6 conference games. 

Can Miami cover this margin at home? The Canes’ struggles against the spread are impossible to ignore at this point, as they’ve gone through stagnant patches offensively and they’re impossible to trust right now. All three of Duke’s losses have been by one possession, so let’s see if that trend continues here. Spot Duke the points here.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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