Boise State at Air Force - 10/22/22 College Football Picks and Prediction

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Boise State will travel and take on Air Force for some Mountain West action this weekend. Boise leads the all-time series 6-4, but Air Force traveled and won last year's meeting, 24-17.

Boise State is 4-2 after defeating Fresno State in Week 6. The Broncos punished the Bulldogs on the ground, gaining 316 rushing yards and finding their recipe for the rest of the season. Boise scores 27.2 points per game, while passing for 152.2 yards per game (248th), and rushing for 185.5 ypg (67th).

Taylen Green’s presence led to incumbent starter Hank Bachmeier entering the transfer portal, and a new era of Boise football. The true freshman quarterback played well in his first game action versus Oregon State, and he’s led the Broncos to MWC wins over SDSU and Fresno State. Lewis has thrown for 330 passing yards with two touchdowns to three interceptions, and he’s rushed for 229 yards and four scores.

George Holani and Ashton Jeanty have given Boise a strong run game, capable of matching Air Force’s physicality. Holani will like surpass last season’s total this weekend with a solid performance. The junior back has rushed for back-to-back season highs, and he leads the Broncos with 549 rushing yards. Jeanty eclipsed the 100-yard mark last weekend, and he’s second on the team with 310 yards. Boise’s run-first approach has limited the wideout production, and Stefan Cobbs leads them with 17 receptions and 144 yards.

Air Force is 5-2 after a big win over UNLV in Week 7. Air Force dominated the Rebels, tearing up the Allegiant Stadium turf for 406 rushing yards en route to a 35-point win. Air Force is averaging 33.3 points per game, while passing for 80.4 yards per game (290th) and rushing for 359.2 (2nd). The Falcon defense gives up 16.4 points per game.

Haaziq Daniels guides the Air Force offense. The senior quarterback has impressively passed for touchdowns in four of seven games, and he’s got the Falcons in the Mountain West title picture. Daniels has passed for 483 passing yards with five touchdowns to one interception, and he’s rushed for 288 yards and three scores this season.

Brad Roberts and John Lee Elridge have been dynamic in the backfield this season. Roberts has been a workhorse thus far, turning 149 carries into 853 rushing yards and a conference-leading 12 touchdowns. Eldridge has surpassed the 100-yard mark three times, and gained 576 yards this season. When the Falcons need a big play outside, they’ve called upon David Cormier, who leads AF with six catches for 224 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Boise State is 3-3 against the spread this season, with a 1-2 record on the road. The under is 5-1 in Boise's last 6 conference games. Air Force is 4-3 ATS this season, with a 3-1 record at home. The under is 4-2 in Air Force's last six conference games.

Boise has found stride out the ground this month, but Air Force will represent a different animal. The Falcons ran the ball down UNLV’s throats last weekend, and there’s no reason that won’t continue with a return to home turf. This will represent the toughest defense true freshman Taylen Lewis has faced, and it’s hard to see them thriving on the road this weekend. 

Air Force should win the fight in the trenches and the field position battle, and they should have little trouble covering this margin at home if their momentum holds up.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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