UCF at SMU: 11/13/21 College Football Picks and Prediction

UCF at SMU: 11/13/21 College Football Picks and Prediction Photo by Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

SMU Mustangs (7-2) vs UCF Knights (6-3)

Game Info: Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 12:00 pm (Gerald J. Ford Stadium)

Betting Odds: SMU Mustangs -7 -- Over/Under: 60.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The UCF Knights will travel to Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.

The UCF Knights won their 3rd straight game and improved to 6-3 on the season after defeating the Tulane Green Wave, 14-10, this past Saturday. In a game that surpingsly featured little offense, UCF was able to pull out the victory after scoring the game-winning TD on a 23-yard TD reception by Brandon Johnson with 5:55 left in the 4th quarter. UCF was outgained by Tulane by a 279-277 margin and lost the turnover battle by a1-0 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Knights was QB Mikey Keene who completed 19 of 25 passes for 229 yards & 2 TD.

On the season, UCF is averaging 32.4 ppg on 404.6 total yards per game (217.1 passing yds/g; 187.4 rushing yds/g). Offensively, UCF has been led by QB Mikey Keene who has completed 65.0% of his passes for 1089 yards, 12 TD, & 6 INT since replacing the injured Dillon Gabriel. The top receiving threats for the Knights have been Ryan O’Keefe (58 rec, 582 yards, 5 TD), Brandon Johnson (29 rec, 390 yards, 9 TD), Jaylon Robinson (12 rec, 234 yards, 2 TD) & Alec Holler (15 rec, 169 yards, 3 TD). Leading the way for the Knights backfield has been Isaiah Bowser (124 att, 548 yards, 7 TD) & Johnny Richardson (73 att, 425 yards, 2 TD; 12 rec, 140 yards).

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Defensively, UCF is allowing their opponents to average 24.1 ppg on 352.6 total yards per game (197.1 passing yds/g; 155.4 rushing yds/g).

The SMU Mustangs lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 7-2 on the season after being defeated by the Memphis Tigers, 28-25, this past Saturday. SMU had their worst offensive outing of the season against Memphis could not fight all the way back after the Tigers took a 28-10 lead on a 40-yard TD reception by Sean Dykes. SMU was outgained by Memphis by a 460-321 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 3-1 margin in the loss. Leading the way for the Mustangs was WR Danny Gray who had 4 receptions for 98 yards & 2 TD.

On the season, SMU is averaging 40.1 ppg on 483.8 total yards per game (322.2 passing yds/g; 161.6 rushing yds/g). Offensively, SMU has been led by QB Tanner Mordecai who has completed 70.1% of his passes for 2887 yards, 34 TD, & 9 INT. The top receiving threats for the Mustangs have been Danny Gray (47 rec, 780 yards, 9 TD), Rashee Rice (45 rec, 526 yards, 7 TD), Reggie Roberson Jr. (38 rec, 497 yards, 5 TD), & Grant Calcaterra (32 rec, 381 yards, 3 TD). Leading the way for the Mustangs backfield has been Tre Siggers who has 570 rushing yards & 5 TD on 126 carries.

Defensively, SMU is allowing their opponents to average 25.7 ppg on 413.4 total yards per game (287.7 passing yds/g; 125.8 rushing yds/g).

The Knights are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 November games. The Mustangs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

UCF might be coming into this game on a 3-game winning streak, however, I haven’t been overly impressed with what I’ve seen from the Knights as of late as the most impressive win of the bunch was probably against Memphis who didn’t have their star QB available. UCF offense certainly has some question marks and it’s pretty concerning that they were only able to put up 14 points at home against a Tulane defense that is allowing almost 38.0 ppg this season. SMU is coming off a disappointing two losses against Houston & Memphis, however, this is still a very dangerous offense and as SMU has been lights out at home this season, I think SMU bounces back in this one with a double-digit victory and covers this spread. Good Luck!

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Brett’s Pick SMU Mustangs -7

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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