SMU at Memphis - 11/6/21 College Football Picks and Prediction

SMU at Memphis - 11/6/21 College Football Picks and Prediction Photo by Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Memphis Tigers (4-4) vs SMU Mustangs (7-1)

Game Info: Saturday, November 6, 2021 at 12:00 pm (Liberty Bowl Memorial)

Betting Odds: Memphis Tigers +4.5 -- Over/Under: 72 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The SMU Mustangs will travel to Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium to take on the Memphis Tigers this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.

The SMU Mustangs lost their first game of the season and dropped to 7-1 on the year after being defeated by the Houston Cougars, 44-37, this past Saturday. SMU was able to fight back from an early 17-0 deficit to tie the game at 37-all with just :30 seconds left in regulation on a Blake Mazza 45-yard FG, however, Houston was able to win the game on the ensuing kick as the Cougars Marcus Jones scored on a 100-yard KO return. SMU was outgained by Houston by a 489-355 margin and forced 1 turnover in the loss. Leading the way for the Mustangs was QB Tanner Mordecai who completed 24 of 37 passes for 305 yards, 3 TD, & 1 INT.

On the season, SMU is averaging 42.0 ppg on 504.1 total yards per game (329.8 passing yds/g; 174.4 rushing yds/g). Offensively, SMU has been led by Tanner Mordecai who has completed 70.3% of his passes for 2625 yards, 32 TD, & 8 INT. The top receiving threats for the Mustangs have been Danny Gray (43 rec, 682 yards, 7 TD), Rashee Rice (41 rec, 466 yards, 7 TD), Reggie Roberson Jr. (35 rec, 464 yards, 5 TD), & Grant Calcaterra (29 rec, 355 yards, 3 TD). Leading the way for the Mustangs backfield has been Tre Siggers who has 517 rushing yards & 5 TD on 114 carries.

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Defensively, SMU is allowing their opponents to average 25.4 ppg on 407.6 total yards per game (269.6 passing yds/g; 138.0 rushing yds/g).

The Memphis Tigers dropped to 4-4 on the season after being defeated by the UCF Knights, 24-7, on October 22nd. Memphis had no answers on the offensive end against the UCF Knights defense on the road and could not fight back after a 31-yard TD run by Ryan O’Keefe gave the Knights a 21-7 lead with 4:59 left in the 3rd quarter. Memphis was outgained by UCF by a 295-292 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 4-1 margin in the loss. Leading the way for the Tigers was Calvin Austin III who had 7 receptions for 44 yards.

On the season, Memphis is averaging 32.5 ppg on 462.6 total yards per game (296.0 passing yds/g; 166.6 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Memphis has been led by WR Calvin Austin III who has 57 receptions for 901 yards & 8 TD. QB Seth Henigan has completed 60.8% of his passes for 2153 yards, 16 TD, & 4 INT, however, missed the game against UCF due to a hand injury and currently is questionable for this matchup. QB Peter Parrish struggled in relief of Henigan against UCF as he completed 31 of 48 passes for 215 yards & 3 INT while also rushing for 60 yards on 22 carries. In the backfield for the Tigers has been Brandon Thomas who has 661 rushing yards & 8 TD on 112 carries. The other top receivers for the Tigers outside of Calvin Austin III have been Sean Dykes (28 rec, 452 yards, 5 TD), Javon Ivory (22 rec, 334 yards, 2 TD), & Eddie Lewis (8 rec, 145 yards, TD).

Defensively, Memphis is allowing their opponents to average 29.6 ppg on 409.8 total yards per game (252.6 passing yds/g; 157.1 rushing yds/g).

The Mustangs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

This is a hard game to pick at this point as a lot of my choice will come down if Memphis QB Seth Henigan is able to play as reports currently look like he will be a game time decision. At this point, under the assumption that Henigan doesn’t play, I’m going to role with SMU as their offense is averaging 37.3 ppg in their 4 road games this season and I just don’t think that the Tigers offense without Henigan can keep up with the Mustangs in this one.

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Brett’s Pick SMU Mustangs -4.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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