Michigan State at Purdue: 11/6/21 College Football Picks and Prediction

Defensively, Michigan State is holding their opponents to an average of 20.5 ppg on 424.6 total yards per game (300.5 passing yds/g; 124.1 rushing yds/g).

The Purdue Boilermakers improved to 5-3 on the season after defeating the Nebraska Cornhuskers, 28-23, this past Saturday. Purdue did a great job defensively against Nebraska and was able to pull away after a 9-yard TD reception by Jackson Anthrop gave the Boilermakers a 28-17 lead with 10:05 left in the 4th quarter. Purdue was outgained by Nebraska by a 399-349 margin, however, won the turnover battle by a 4-0 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Boilermakers was QB Aidan O’Connell who completed 34 of 45 passes for 233 yards & 2 TD.

On the season, Purdue is averaging 22.9 ppg on 386.6 total yards per game (307.1 passing yds/g; 79.5 rushing yds/g). Purdue has been using both Aidan O’Connell (71.0 Comp %, 1551 yards, 9 TD, 8 INT) & Jack Plummer (68.3 Comp %, 862 yards, 7 TD), however, O’Connell started last week and is the projected starter for this key matchup. The top receiving threats for the Boilermakers have been David Bell (53 rec, 786 yards, 4 TD), Payne Durham (36 rec, 356 yards, 4 TD), Milton Wright (32 rec, 315 yards, 3 TD), & Jackson Anthrop (28 rec, 236 yards, TD). Leading the way for the Purdue backfield has been King Doerue who has 360 rushing yards & 1 TD on 92 carries.

Defensively, Purdue is holding their opponents to an average of 17.1 ppg on 313.8 total yards per game (174.0 passing yds/g; 139.8 rushing yds/g).

The Spartans are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Boilermakers are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.

Michigan State is coming off a huge win against in-state rival, Michigan, however, I think the Spartans are in for a huge challenge against and underrated Purdue team that is coming off an impressive road victory against Nebraska and defeated Iowa on the road by a 17-point margin. Michigan State has arguably the best offensive player in the Kenneth Walker III, however, the Purdue defense has been solid this season and as I think the Boilermakers will be able to exploit Michigan State’s 127th ranked passing defense, I think the play here is to take Purdue and the points. Good Luck!