WKU at Michigan State: 10/2/21 College Football Picks and Prediction

WKU at Michigan State: 10/2/21 College Football Picks and Prediction Photo by Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan State Spartans (4-0) vs WKU Hilltoppers (1-2)

Game Info: Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 7:30 pm (Spartan Stadium)

Betting Odds: Michigan State Spartans -10.5 -- Over/Under: 64.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will travel to Spartan Stadium to take on the 17th ranked Michigan State Spartans this Saturday night in College Football action

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 1-2 on the season after being defeated by the Indiana Hoosiers, 33-31, this past Saturday. Western Kentucky was outstanding on the offensive end against Indiana, however, could not fight back after a 1-yard TD run by the Hoosiers Stephen Carr gave Indiana a 33-24 lead with 4:27 left in the 4th quarter. Western Kentucky was outgained by Indiana by a 507-458 margin and force a turnover in the loss. Leading the way for the Hilltoppers was QB Bailey Zappe who completed 31 of 44 passes for 365 yards & 3 TD’s.

On the season, Western Kentucky is averaging 41.7 ppg on 507.3 total yards per game (426.0 passing yds/g; 81.3 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Western Kentucky has been led by QB Bailey Zappe who has completed 73.1% of his passes for 1224 yards, 13 TD, & 2 INT. The top receiving threats for Zappe and the Hilltoppers have been Jerreth Sterns (23 rec, 360 yards, 4 TD), Mitchell Tinsley (14 rec, 219 yards, 2 TD), Malachi Corley (20 rec, 184 yards, 2 TD), & Daewood Davis (6 rec, 164 yards, 2 TD). Leading the way for the Hilltoppers backfield has been the duo of Adam Cofield (23 att, 82 yards, TD) & Noah Whittington (14 att, 74 yards).

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Defensively, Western Kentucky is allowing their opponents to average 30.7 ppg on 439.7 total yards per game (215.0 passing yds/g; 224.7 rushing yds/g).

The 17th ranked Michigan State Spartans improved to 4-0 on the season after defeating the Nebraska Cornhuskers, 23-20 (OT), this past Saturday. Michigan State was able to force OT after a 62-yard punt return TD by Jayden Reed tied the game with 3:47 left in the 4th quarter and won it in OT on a 23-yard FG by Matt Coghlin. Michigan State was outgained by Nebraska by a 442-254 margin, however, did win the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Spartans was WR Jayden Reed who on top of his game-tying punt return TD, finished the game with 4 receptions for 59 yards & 1 TD.

On the season, Michigan State is averaging 35.3 ppg on 453.5 total yards per game (238.0 passing yds/g; 215.5 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Michigan State has been led by RB Kenneth Walker III who has 554 rushing yards & 5 TD’s on 76 carries. QB Payton Thorne has completed 62.0% of his passes for 90 yards, 10 TD, & 1 INT. The top receiving threats for the Spartans have been Jayden Reed (16 rec, 336 yards, 4 TD), Tre Mosley (13 rec, 193 yards), & Jalen Nailor (10 rec, 141 yards, 3 TD).

Defensively, Michigan State is holding their opponents to an average of 18.0 ppg on 396.5 total yards per game (264.0 passing yds/g; 132.5 rushing yds/g).

The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Spartans are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games overall, however, are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 home games.

Michigan State has gotten off to a great start to their season, largely behind a defense that is giving up just 18.0 ppg, however, I’m still not completely sold on the Spartans. Despite the solid scoring defense, Michigan State has been vulnerable against opposing passing attacks which could lead to major trouble with the Hilltoppers as Bailey Zappe has the Western Kentucky passing offense ranked 2nd in College Football. Western Kentucky has been competitive against strong competition in Army & Indiana as I think they will also give Michigan State some trouble, I think the play here is to take the Hilltoppers and the points. Good Luck!

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Brett’s Pick Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -10.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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