USF at SMU: 10/2/21 College Football Picks and Prediction

USF at SMU: 10/2/21 College Football Picks and Prediction Photo by Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

SMU Mustangs (4-0) vs USF Bulls (1-3)

Game Info: Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 4:00 pm (Gerald J. Ford Stadium)

Betting Odds: SMU Mustangs -21 -- Over/Under: 68.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The South Florida Bulls will travel to Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.

The South Florida Bulls dropped to 1-3 on the season after being defeated by the 15th ranked BYU Cougars, 35-27, this past Saturday. South Florida gave BYU all they could handle on the road, however, the Bulls could not fight back after a 47-yard TD reception by BYU’s Gunner Romney gave the Cougars a 35-13 lead midway through the 3rd quarter. South Florida was outgained by BYU by a 448-360 margin and committed 1 turnover in the loss. Leading the way for the Bulls was RB Jaren Mangham who had 86 rushing yards & 2 TD’s on 26 carries.

On the season, South Florida is averaging 21.3 ppg on 333.0 total yards per game (176.0 passing yds/g; 157.0 rushing yds/g). Offensively, South Florida has been led by the RB duo of Jaren Mangham (46 att, 168 yards, 7 TD) & Brian Battie (24 att, 145 yards). QB Timmy McClain has completed 57.1% of his passes for 558 yards, 1 TD, & 2 INT while also rushing for 133 yards on 41 carries. The top receiving threats for the Bulls have been Xavier Weaver (14 rec, 294 yards, TD), Omarion Dollison (8 rec, 73 yards), Mitchell Brinkman (4 rec, 64 yards), & Latrell Williams (7 rec, 57 yards).

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Defensively, South Florida is allowing their opponents to average 34.8 ppg on 504.8 total yards per game (272.0 passing yds/g; 232.8 rushing yds/g).

The SMU Mustangs improved to 4-0 on the season after defeating the TCU Horned Frogs, 42-34, this past Saturday. SMU had no trouble generating offense against the TCU defense on the road and was able to hang onto the victory after a 26-yard TD reception by Jordan Kerley gave the Mustangs a 42-27 lead with 12:19 left in the 4th quarter. SMU outgained TCU by a 595-446 margin, however, did commit 3 turnovers in the victory. Leading the way for the Mustangs was RB Ulysses Bentley IV who had 153 rushing yards & 1 TD on 20 carries.

On the season, SMU is averaging 43.0 ppg on 549.8 total yards per game (317.5 passing yds/g; 232.3 rushing yds/g). Offensively, SMU has been led by QB Tanner Mordecai who has completed 70.5% of his passes for 1268 yards, 20 TD, & 5 INT. The top receiving threats for the Mustangs have been Danny Gray (20 rec, 358 yards, 5 TD), Rashee Rice (14 rec, 227 yards, 5 TD), Reggie Robinson Jr. (17 rec, 211 yards, 2 TD), & Grant Calcaterra (13 rec, 202 yards, 3 TD). Leading the way for the Mustangs backfield has been the duo of Ulysses Bentley IV (53 att, 403 yards, 2 TD) & Tre Siggers (52 att, 257 yards).

Defensively, SMU is holding their opponents to an average of 23.0 ppg on 441.8 total yards per game (306.0 passing yds/g; 135.8 rushing yds/g).

The Bulls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

South Florida played their best game of the season against BYU and has looked much better offensively since starting Timmy McClain, however, this is still not a very good football team and they are going to have a world of trouble trying to slow down a SMU offensive that ranks 9th in scoring offense & 5th in total offense. SMU can give up points, however, they struggle mostly against opposing passing attacks which should not be as much of a concern in this one as the Bulls come into this game ranked just 109th in passing offense. SMU always seems to pile up the points when they are on their home turf and as I think they have no trouble putting up 40+ in this one, I think the Mustangs do enough to cover this large spread. Good Luck!

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Brett’s Pick SMU Mustangs -21

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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