UCF at Navy: 10/2/21 College Football Picks and Prediction

UCF  at Navy: 10/2/21 College Football Picks and Prediction Photo by Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

Navy Midshipmen (0-3) vs UCF Knights (2-1)

Game Info: Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 3:30 pm (Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium)

Betting Odds: Navy Midshipmen +16.5 -- Over/Under: 53 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The UCF Knights will travel to Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium to take on the Navy Midshipmen this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.

The UCF Knights dropped to 2-1 on the season after being defeated by the Louisville Cardinals, 42-35, on September 17th. UCF had no answers for Malik Cunningham and the Cardinals offensive attack and allowed Louisville to win on a 66-yard pick-six with just :13 seconds left in the 4th quarter. UCF was outgained by Louisville by a 501-416 margin and committed 1 turnover in the loss. Leading the way for the Knights was Dillon Gabriel who completed 22 of 29 passes for 184 yards, 3 TD, & 1 INT.

On the season, UCF is averaging 44.7 ppg on 553.3 total yards per game (301.0 passing yds/g; 252.3 rushing yds/g). Offensively, UCF is led by QB Dillon Gabriel who has completed 68.6% of his passes for 814 yards, 9 TD, & 3 INT. Gabriel has also been a threat with his legs as he has 125 rushing yards & 2 TD’s on 24 carries.  The top receiving threats for the Knights have been Jaylon Robinson (12 rec, 234 yards, 2 TD), Ryan O’Keefe (15 rec, 229 yards, TD), & Brandon Johnson (15 rec, 144 yards, 3 TD). Leading the way for the UCF backfield has been the duo of Isaiah Bowser (51 att, 268 yards, 5 TD) & Johnny Richardson (15 att, 134 yards).

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Defensively, UCF is allowing their opponents to average 29.0 ppg on 354.3 total yards per game (276.0 passing yds/g; 78.3 rushing yds/g)

The Navy Midshipmen dropped to 0-3 on the season after being defeated by the Houston Cougars, 28-20. This past Saturday. Navy was solid in the 1st half against Houston and went into halftime with a 17-7 lead, however, the Midshipmen struggle defensively in the 2nd half and could not fight back after 21 unanswered points by the Cougars gave Houston a 28-17 lead with 12:08 left in the 4th quarter. Navy was outgained by Houston by a 384-295 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin in the loss. Leading the way for the Midshipmen was QB Xavier Arline who completed 3 of 6 passes for 83 yards while also rushing for 64 yards & 1 TD on 19 carries.

On the season, Navy is averaging just 10.0 ppg on 253.7 total yards per game (63.7 passing yds/g; 190.0 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Navy is run-first team and has been led by QB Xavier Arline (51 att, 171 yards, 2 TD), RB James Harris II (30 att, 144 yards), & RB Isaac Ruoss (30 att, 127 yards, TD). QB Xavier Arline has completed 5 of 14 passes for 109 yards while QB Maasai Maynor has completed 6 of 13 passes for 74 yards. The top receiving threat for the Midshipmen has been Mychal Cooper who has 6 receptions for 128 yards.

Defensively, Navy is allowing their opponents to average 33.3 ppg on 357.7 total yards per game (223.0 passing yds/g; 134.7 rushing yds/g).

The Knights are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Midshipmen are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 conference games, however, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

UCF suffered a disappointing loss to Louisville, however, this is still a very good team that has an explosive offense that can put up points in a hurry. Navy looks like they are in for a long year as their option rushing attack hasn’t been able to get anything going this season and the Midshipmen come into this game ranked dead last in CFB in scoring offense. UCF can give up points, however, their rushing defense has been solid and between the fact that Navy is giving up 33+ points per game and that the Knights have had an extra week to prepare for Navy’s option attack, I think UCF wins this one by at least three TD’s and covers this spread. Good Luck!

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Brett’s Pick UCF Knights -16.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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