Alabama vs. Michigan - 1/1/20 College Football Citrus Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Alabama vs. Michigan - 1/1/20 College Football Citrus Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Wolverines (9-3) at Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)

College Football: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 at 1:00 pm (Camping World Stadium)

The Line: Alabama Crimson Tide -7 -- Over/Under:

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The Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide meet Wednesday in college football Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium on New Years Day.

The Michigan Wolverines have won seven of their last nine games and look for their first bowl win since 2015. The Michigan Wolverines have won three of their last five non-home games. Shea Patterson is completing 57.3 percent of his passes for 2,828 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. Patterson has two or more touchdown passes in 11 of his last 20 games. Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins have combined for 1,386 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while Donovan Peoples-Jones has 33 receptions. The Michigan Wolverines ground game is averaging 149.7 yards per contest, and Zach Charbonnet leads the way with 642 yards and 11 touchdowns. Defensively, Michigan is allowing 19.5 points and 292.8 yards per game. Khaleke Hudson leads the Michigan Wolverines with 96 tackles, Josh Uche has 8.5 sacks and Ambry Thomas has three interceptions.

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The Alabama Crimson Tide have a chance at a feel good victory after splitting their last four games. The Alabama Crimson Tide have won four of their last five non-home games. Mac Jones is completing 69.8 percent of his passes for 1,176 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. Jones and Tua Tagovailoa have combined for 44 touchdowns and six interceptions. DeVonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy have combined for 2,159 receiving yards and 22 touchdowns while Henry Ruggs III has 38 receptions. The Alabama Crimson Tide ground game is averaging 169.8 yards per contest, and Najee Harris leads the way with 1,088 yards and 11 touchdowns. Defensively, Alabama is allowing 18.8 points and 318.5 yards per game. Xavier McKinney leads the Alabama Crimson Tide with 85 tackles, Anfernee Jennings has 7.5 sacks and Jared Mayden has four interceptions.

The Wolverines are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in January. The over is 12-2 in Wolverines last 14 neutral site games. The over is 21-7-2 in Crimson Tide last 30 neutral site games.

The Alabama Crimson Tide simply aren't the same team we're used to seeing in years past and they're playing an inexperienced quarterback who has been up and down in backup time. You also have to question just how motivated Alabama will be for this game, as this is a team that was thinking national title about three weeks ago. The Michigan Wolverines have been a different team over the last two months and has to be thrilled with this quality matchup. Patterson is playing some of the best ball of his life and that Michigan defense has the players to get after Jones and company. I'll take the free touchdown in the more motivated and hotter Michigan Wolverines. 

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Randy’s Pick Michigan Wolverines +7

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.