Memphis at Navy- 11/28/20 College Football Picks and Prediction

Defensively, Memphis is allowing their opponents to average 32.6 ppg on 476.9 total yards per game (345.4 passing yds/g; 131.4 rushing yds/g).

The Navy Midshipmen had their 3rd straight game postponed due to Covid-19 and come into this game with an overall record of 4-3 (3-2 AAC) on the season after being defeated by the 22nd ranked SMU Mustangs, 51-37, on October 31st. Navy had no answers on the defensive end for the potent SMU offensive attack and could not fight back after SMU took a 45-17 lead on a 20-yard TD reception by Rashee Rice with 5:17 left in the 3rd quarter. Navy was outgained by SMU by a 555-430 margin and committed one turnover in the loss. Leading the way for the Midshipmen was QB Tyger Goslin who completed 6 of 10 passes for 123 yards & 2 TD.

On the season, Navy is averaging 21.9 ppg on 308.4 total yards per game (121.4 passing yds/g; 187.0 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Navy has been led by FB Nelson Smith who has 447 rushing yards & 7 TD’s on 76 carries. Also in the backfield for the Midshipmen has been Jamale Carothers (88 att, 337 yards, 2 TD), Myles Fells (19 att, 139 yards), CJ Williams (16 att, 107 yards), and Chance Warren (18 att, 78 yards, 3 TD). QB Dalen Morris has completed 31 of 58 passes for 555 yards, 3 TD, & 2 INT while also adding 54 rushing yards & 2 TD’s on 66 carries. The top receiving threat for navy has been Mychal Cooper who has 199 receiving yards & 2 TD’s on 12 receptions.

Defensively, Navy is allowing their opponents to average 37.0 ppg on 445.3 total yards per game (201.0 passing yds/g; 244.3 rushing yds/g).

The Tigers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, however, are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Midshipmen are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference games.

Navy is nowhere near as strong as we have seen in past years and have been pretty non-competitive against top-tier competition as in their four losses (BYU, Air Force, Houston, SMU), the Midshipmen have lost by an average of 28.8 ppg. Memphis is one of the better offensive teams in the country and as I think they will have no problem piling on points on Navy’s 109th ranked scoring defense, I think the play here is to take Memphis to cover this large home spread. Good Luck!