Kansas State vs. Navy - 12/31/19 College Football Liberty Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Kansas State vs. Navy - 12/31/19 College Football Liberty Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Navy Midshipmen (10-2) at Kansas State Wildcats (8-4)

College Football: Tuesday, December 31, 2019 at 3:45 pm (Liberty Bowl Memorial)

The Line: Kansas State Wildcats +2.5 -- Over/Under: 52

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The Navy Midshipmen and Kansas State Wildcats meet Tuesday in the college football Liberty Bowl at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium on New Years Eve.

The Navy Midshipmen have a chance to win 11 games for the second time in school history. The Navy Midshipmen have won four of their last five non-home games. Malcolm Perry is completing 54.4 percent of his passes for 1,027 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. The Navy Midshipmen have 14 touchdown passes dating back to last season. Mychal Cooper and CJ Williams have combined for 565 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Ryan Mitchell has seven receptions. The Navy Midshipmen ground game is averaging 363.6 yards per contest, and Perry leads the way with 1,804 yards and 21 touchdowns. Defensively, Navy is allowing 22.8 points and 326.2 yards per game. Diego Fagot leads the Navy Midshipmen with 93 tackles, Jacob Springer has eight sacks and Chelen Garnes has two interceptions.

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The Kansas State Wildcats have won five of their last eight games and three of their last five bowl games. The Kansas State Wildcats have won three of their last five non-home games. Skylar Thompson is completing 59 percent of his passes for 2,191 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. Thompson has one or less touchdown passes in seven of his last 10 games. Dalton Schoen and Malik Knowles have combined for 917 receiving yards and seven touchdowns while Phillip Brooks has 26 receptions. The Kansas State Wildcats ground game is averaging 189 yards per contest, and James Gilbert leads the way with 698 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas State is allowing 21.5 points and 364 yards per game. Denzel Goolsby leads the Kansas State Wildcats with 56 tackles, Wyatt Hubert has seven sacks and AJ Parker has three interceptions.

The Midshipmen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The over is 7-3 in Midshipmen last 10 games overall. The under is 18-7-1 in Wildcats last 26 games overall. 

It's always going to be easier to defend the triple-option when you have a month to prepare for it, but I still don't like the Kansas State Wildcats in this matchup. Kansas State is allowing an average for 4.91 rushing yards per carry this season, which is good for 106th in college football. That's not what you want to see when going up against a Navy offense that has so many different looks it can throw at a defense. Navy is also familiar with Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium given that it plays in the AAC, so the Midshipmen should be well represented for this game. I'll take Navy in a close victory.

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Randy’s Pick Navy Midshipmen -2.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.