FAU vs. SMU - 12/21/19 College Football Boca Raton Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction

FAU vs. SMU - 12/21/19 College Football Boca Raton Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

SMU Mustangs (10-2) at Florida Atlantic Owls (10-3)

College Football: Saturday, December 21, 2019 at 3:30 pm (FAU Stadium)

The Line: Florida Atlantic Owls +3.5 -- Over/Under: 72

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The SMU Mustangs and Florida Atlantic Owls meet Saturday in the college football Boca Raton Bowl at FAU Football Stadium.

The SMU Mustangs have split their last four games and can win 11 or more games for the third time in school history. The SMU Mustangs have won four of their last six road games. Shane Buechele is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,626 yards, 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Buechele has two or more touchdown passes in each of his last 11 games. James Proche and Reggie Roberson Jr. have combined for 1,942 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns while Kylen Granson has 36 receptions. The SMU Mustangs ground game is averaging 185.9 yards per contest, and Xavier Jones leads the way with 1,241 yards and 21 touchdowns. Defensively, SMU is allowing 31.3 points and 438.7 yards per game. Richard McBryde leads the SMU Mustangs with 87 tackles, Patrick Nelson has 12 sacks and Rodney Clemons has four interceptions.

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The Florida Atlantic Owls look to build on their six-game winning streak while winning double-digit games for the second time. The Florida Atlantic Owls have won their last three home games. Chris Robison is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 3,396 yards, 26 touchdowns and six interceptions. Robison has two or more touchdown passes in seven of his last 11 games. Harrison Bryant and Deangelo Antoine have combined for 1,775 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns while Tavaris Harrison has 33 receptions. The Florida Atlantic Owls ground game is averaging 164.3 yards per contest, and Malcolm Davidson leads the way with 711 yards and nine touchdowns. Defensively, Florida Atlantic is allowing 22.3 points and 370.3 yards per game. Akileis Leroy leads the Florida Atlantic Owls with 101 tackles, Leighton McCarthy has six sacks and Meiko Dotson has nine interceptions.

The Mustangs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Owls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The over is 9-3 in Mustangs last 12 games overall. The under is 8-3 in Owls last 11 games on grass. 

The SMU Mustangs got off to an 8-0 start because of their offense, but that defense has really struggled over the last month and their two losses came when they scored a combined 76 points. The Florida Atlantic Owls finished the season strong and get to host a rare bowl game, so that's a major edge. There's still no word if Lane Kiffin will coach one last time before leaving for Ole Miss, but I'm not sure it matters. The Florida Atlantic Owls have all the momentum with a red hot offense and the home crowd behind them. FAU should probably win this game outright. 

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Randy’s Pick Florida Atlantic Owls +3.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.