Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky - 11/16/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky - 11/16/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky Wildcats (4-5) at Vanderbilt Commodores (2-7)

College Football: Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 3:30 pm (Vanderbilt Stadium)

The Line: Vanderbilt Commodores +8.5 -- Over/Under: 44

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The Kentucky Wildcats and the Vanderbilt Commodores meet in a week 12 SEC college football matchup from Vanderbilt Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

The Kentucky Wildcats will look to find some consistency after alternating wins and losses in each of their last 5 games after a 17-13 loss to Tennessee last time out. Sawyer Smith has thrown for 674 yards, 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 46.6% passing while Lynn Bowden Jr. leads Kentucky in rushing with 712 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Asim Rose has 552 rushing yards and 4 TDs and Kavosley Smoke has 399 rushing yards and 5 TDs on the year. Bowden Jr. also leads the Wildcats in receiving with 30 catches for 348 yards while Ahmad Wagner has 249 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, DeAndre Square and Yusuf Corker are tied for the team-high with 58 total tackles including 38 solo tackles each while Calvin Taylor Jr. has a team-high 6 sacks this season. As a team, Kentucky is averaging 352.6 yards of total offense and 20.3 points per game while allowing 349.8 yards of total defense and 20.8 points per game against this season.

The Vanderbilt Commodores will look to rebound from back-to-back losses after a 56-0 stomping at the hands of Florida last time out. Riley Neal has thrown for 1,193 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 58.6% passing while Ke’Shawn Vaughn leads Vandy in rushing with 818 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. Kalija Lipscomb leads the Commodores in receiving with 33 grabs for 381 yards while the aforementioned Vaughn, Cam Johnson and Chris Pierce each have 200+ receiving yards for the Commodores this season. Defensively, Dimitri Moore leads the Commodores with 71 total tackles while Andre Mintze has a team-high 4 sacks and Tae Daley has 3 interceptions this season. As a team, Vanderbilt is averaging 296.7 yards of total offense and 15.1 points per game while allowing 465.8 yards of total defense and 35 points per game against this season.

Kentucky is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record. Vanderbilt is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games while the under is 7-2 in their last 9 conference games. Kentucky is 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

The points with Vanderbilt would be tempting if the Commodores weren’t such a train wreck ATS both at home and overall this season. Vandy is also going nowhere fast and looks like a shell of the Commodore teams of years past that would perennially find themselves in a bowl game. Kentucky isn’t a team I’m trying to lay these kinds of lines with on the road, but the Wildcats need these games to push for a bowl at the end of the season and the Wildcats just are playing better football than Vanderbilt is right now. I’ll lay the points with Kentucky on the road in this one.

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Chris’s Pick Kentucky -8.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.