Texas State vs. Troy - 11/16/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Texas State vs. Troy - 11/16/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Trojans (4-5) at Texas State Bobcats (3-6)

College Football: Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 3:00 pm (Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium)

The Line: Texas State Bobcats +9 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Troy Trojans and Texas State Bobcats meet Saturday in college football action at Bobcat Stadium.

The Troy Trojans need a win after losing four of their last six games. The Troy Trojans have lost their last three road games. Kaleb Barker is completing 66.9 percent of his passes for 2,806 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Barker has two or more touchdown passes in his last four games. Kaylon Geiger and Reggie Todd have combined for 1,254 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Khalil McClain has 36 receptions. The Troy Trojans ground game is averaging 158.1 yards per contest, and DK Billingsley leads the way with 777 yards and nine touchdowns. Defensively, Troy is allowing 32.1 points and 408.2 yards per game. Carlton Martial leads the Troy Trojans with 94 tackles, Marcus Webb has six sacks and Will Sunderland has three interceptions. 

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The Texas State Bobcats look for a win after splitting their last six games. The Texas State Bobcats have won three of their last four home games. Gresch Jensen is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 1,291 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions. Jensen and Tyler Vitt have combined for 11 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. Hutch White and Trevis Graham, Jr. have combined for 773 receiving yards and five touchdowns while Jah’Marae Sheread has 21 receptions. The Texas State Bobcats ground game is averaging 75.3 yards per contest, and Caleb Twyford leads the way with 457 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Texas State is allowing 29.9 points and 409.6 yards per game. Bryan London II leads the Texas State Bobcats with 89 tackles, Nikolas Daniels has four sacks and JaShon Waddy has two interceptions. 

The Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Bobcats are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The under is 11-4 in Bobcats last 15 games overall. The over is 7-3 in Trojans last 10 games overall.

The Troy Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite. The Texas State Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog. Neither of these teams have been the most consistent in the world and Troy has not looked good on the road, despite having a lot of success ATS. Texas State is coming off its biggest win of the season and still has an outside shot at a bowl game, but the Bobcats have zero success covering numbers and when the trends are that bad, I usually shy away and just blindly back what works. The Troy Trojans aren't a team I'm running to back given the inconsistency, but the trends heavily favor the road team in this contest. 

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Randy’s Pick Texas State Bobcats +9

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.