Mississippi State vs. Alabama - 11/16/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-5)
College Football: Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 12:00 pm (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field)
The Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs +19.5 -- Over/Under: 61
The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Mississippi State Bulldogs meet in a week 12 SEC conference college football matchup from Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Alabama Crimson Tide will be looking to rebound from their first loss of the season coming in the form of a 46-41 loss to LSU in their last outing. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 2,574 yards, 31 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 70.9% passing while Najee Harris leads the Tide in rushing with 788 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns and Brian Robinson Jr. has 359 rushing yards and 4 TDs. DeVonta Smith leads Bama’s receiving group with 934 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns while Jerry Jeudy has a team-high 57 catches for 753 yards and 9 TDs and Henry Ruggs III has 581 receiving yards and 6 TDs. Jaylen Waddle has 319 receiving yards while the aforementioned Najee Harris has 215 receiving yards and 5 receiving scores out of the backfield. Defensively, Xavier McKinney leads the Tide with 69 total tackles including a team-high 43 solo tackles. Terrell Lewis and Anfernee Jennings are tied for the team-high with 6 sacks while Trevon Diggs leads Alabama with 3 interceptions. As a team, Alabama is averaging 510.7 yards of total offense and 47.6 points per game while allowing 335.8 yards of total defense and 18.7 points per game against this season.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have had a week to prepare after demolishing Arkansas in their last outing by a final score of 54-24. Garrett Shrader has thrown for 1,022 yards, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 55.1% passing while sitting 2nd on the team in rushing with 504 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Kylin Hill leads Mississippi State with 1,027 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns Osirus Mitchell has 26 grabs for a team-leading 377 receiving yards and5 touchdowns. Deddrick Thomas has 307 receiving yards while Stephen Guidry has 278 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns and Isaiah Zuber has 211 receiving yards this season. Defensively, Erroll Thompson leads Mississippi State with 63 total tackles while Chauncey Rivers leads the Bulldogs with 2.5 sacks and Cameron Dantzler has a pair of interceptions this season. As a team, Mississippi State is averaging 407.8 yards of total offense and 28.7 points per game while allowing 389.4 yards of total defense and 30.2 points per game against this season.
Alabama is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record while the over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games. Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games while the over is 4-0 in their last 4 games following a win. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.
I’d like to give Mississippi State a chance with the points to catch a vulnerable Alabama team fresh off of that narrow loss to LSU. The problem is that I think Alabama is going to be ticked off that they lost such a high-profile game, and Bama knows that they can’t afford anymore slip ups if they’re going to be in the conversation for one of the playoff spots. Alabama hadn’t played the toughest schedule prior to LSU, but the Tide still beat on a lot of their opponents like a proverbial drum, so I’ll lay the points with Alabama in this one as I think they run all over the Bulldogs here.