East Carolina vs. USF - 10/26/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

East Carolina vs. USF - 10/26/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

USF Bulls (3-4) at East Carolina Pirates (3-4)

College Football: Saturday, October 26, 2019 at 3:45 pm (Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium)

The Line: East Carolina Pirates +1 -- Over/Under:

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The South Florida Bulls and East Carolina Pirates meet Saturday in college football action at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.

The South Florida Bulls need a win here to get back to a .500 record and improve their bowl odds. The South Florida Bulls have lost five of their last six road games. Jordan McCloud is completing 53.6 percent of his passes for 674 yards, eight touchdowns and six interceptions. Blake Barnett and McCloud have combined for 12 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Mitchell Wilcox and Bryce Miller combined for 402 receiving yards and seven touchdowns while Jacob Mathis has eight receptions. The South Florida Bulls ground game is averaging 156.5 yards per contest, and Jordan Cronkrite leads the way with 458 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, South Florida is allowing 29.6 points and 393.7 yards per game. Patrick Macon leads the South Florida Bulls with 55 tackles, Greg Reaves has three sacks and KJ Sails has two interceptions.

The East Carolina Pirates also need a win to get back to a .500 record. The East Carolina Pirates have split their last eight home games. Holton Ahlers is completing 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,455 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions. Ahlers has six touchdown passes in his last four games. Blake Proehl and C.J. Johnson have combined for 656 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Tyler Snead has 16 receptions. The East Carolina Pirates ground game is averaging 162.1 yards per contest, and Demetrius Mauney leads the way with 318 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, East Carolina is allowing 25.9 points and 401.9 yards per game. Xavier Smith leads the East Carolina Pirates with 47 tackles, Kendall Futrell has eight sacks and Gerard Stringer has two interceptions. 

The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games. The Pirates are 11-31-1 ATS in their last 43 conference games, 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 20-43-1 ATS in their last 64 games overall. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 games overall. The over is 3-1-1 in Bulls last 5 games overall.

The South Florida Bulls have failed to cover six of their last 10 games as a road underdog. The East Carolina Pirates have split their last eight home games ATS as a home underdog. The South Florida Bulls just got crushed by Navy and don't look like the experienced team that most expected to be a factor in the AAC this season. The East Carolina Pirates have played their best football this year at home and they have a young quarterback in Ahlers who is getting more confident at the position and becoming more of a playmaker. The South Florida Bulls shouldn't be road favorites against most teams and I'm not trying to back them in these spots, as they're simply not a good team. In a toss-up, give me ECU and the free point at home.


Randy’s Pick East Carolina Pirates +1

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.