Penn State vs. Michigan - 10/19/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

The Penn State Nittany Lions look to build on their 6-0 record and remain in the CFB playoff conversation. The Penn State Nittany Lions have won each of their last seven home games. Sean Clifford is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,560 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. Clifford has seven touchdown passes in his last four games. KJ Hamler and Jahan Dotson have combined for 726 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while Pat Freiermuth has 17 receptions. The Penn State Nittany Lions ground game is averaging 191.1 yards per contest, and Noah Cain leads the way with 310 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Penn State is allowing 8.2 points and 259.7 yards per game. Micah Parsons leads the Penn State Nittany Lions with 31 tackles, Yetur Gross-Matos has 5.5 sacks and John Reid has two interceptions.

The Wolverines are 19-40-2 ATS in their last 61 road games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Nittany Lions are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 home games, 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 conference games and 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 games overall. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Penn State and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The under is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games overall. The over is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 road games.

The Michigan Wolverines have failed to cover 10 of their last 15 games as a road underdog. The Penn State Nittany Lions have split their last 12 games ATS as a home favorite. The home team has won the last three meetings between Michigan and Penn State, and none of those games were close. For the most part Penn State has done nothing but beat the hell out of teams this season, while Michigan seems to have rebounded from its loss to Wisconsin, but I'm not sure how much stock you put into Rutgers, Iowa and Illinois. The bottom line here is that I have zero confidence in Michigan and Jim Harbaugh in big games. The Michigan Wolverines come up small time and time again in spots like this and a lot of those games aren't close. I'll fade the Wolverines until they prove me wrong.