North Texas vs. Middle Tennessee - 10/19/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-4) at North Texas Mean Green (2-4)
College Football: Saturday, October 19, 2019 at 4:00 pm (Apogee Stadium)
The Line: North Texas Mean Green -9.5 -- Over/Under: 57
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and the North Texas Mean Green meet in a week 8 C-USA college football matchup from Apogee Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders will be out to bounce back from a 28-13 loss to FAU in their last outing that dropped MTSU to 2-4 on the year. Asher O’Hara has thrown for 1,491 yards, 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 65% passing while also leading the Blue Raiders in rushing with 368 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Chaton Mobley is 2nd in rushing with 164 rushing yards and 3 TDs while Brad Anderson also has 100+ rushing yards for the Blue Raiders this year. Jarrin Pierce leads the Blue Raiders’ receiving group with 23 grabs for 327 yards and 2 touchdowns while CJ Windham has 233 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Jimmy Marshall and Ty Lee each have 200+ receiving yards for Middle Tennessee this season with Lee adding a team-high 25 catches this season. Defensively, Reed Blankenship leads MTSU with 52 total tackles including 37 solo tackles while Jovante Moffatt is 2nd with 49 total tackles including a team-high 39 solo tackles with both Moffatt and Blankenship logging a pair of interceptions this year. As a team, Middle Tennessee is averaging 386.7 yards of total offense and 20.7 points per game while allowing 494.7 yards of total defense and 32.7 points per game against this season.
The North Texas Mean Green will look to rebound from back-to-back losses after a 45-27 loss to Southern Miss in their last outing. Mason Fine has thrown for 1,508 yards, 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 60.2% passing while Tre Siggers leads the Mean Green in rushing with 502 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns and DeAndre Torrey has 275 rushing yards as well for UNT this year. Jaelon Darden leads the Mean Green’s receiving group with 35 catches for 350 yards and 6 touchdowns while Michael Lawrence has 261 receiving yards and Jyaire Shorter has 205 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, KD Davis leads North Texas with 54 total tackles while Tyreke Davis and Dion Novil each have 2.5 sacks for North Texas this season. As a team, North Texas is averaging 439.2 yards of total offense and 32 points per game while allowing 410.8 yards of total defense and 32.8 points per game against this season.
Middle Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games while the over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games. North Texas is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall while the under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against a team with a losing record. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
This should be a shootout as both teams the ability to move the ball. The difference for me though is that North Texas consistently puts points on the board while Middle Tennessee tends to let the game get away from them. Head-to-head, the last five meetings and nine of the last ten have been decided by double figures including six games decided by 20 points or more, meaning the games are all that close at the final whistle. Given the history between the two sides, I’d lay the points with the Mean Green here.