Penn State vs. Purdue - 10/5/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Penn State vs. Purdue - 10/5/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) at Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)

College Football: Saturday, October 5, 2019 at 12:00 pm (Beaver Stadium)

The Line: Penn State Nittany Lions -27.5 -- Over/Under: 55.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Purdue Boilermakers and Penn State Nittany Lions meet Saturday in college football action at Beaver Stadium.

The Purdue Boilermakers could use a big road upset to rebound from a rough 1-3 start to the season. The Purdue Boilermakers have split their last six road games. Elijah Sindelar is completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 978 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Sindelar has at least one touchdown pass in four of his last five games. Rondale Moore and David Bell have combined for 631 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Brycen Hopkins has 13 receptions. The Purdue Boilermakers ground game is averaging 68.2 yards per contest, and King Doerue leads the way with 131 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Purdue is allowing 32.5 points and 451 yards per game. Ben Holt leads the Purdue Boilermakers with 44 tackles, George Karlaftis has three sacks and Dedrick Mackey has one interception.

The Penn State Nittany Lions have a chance to start 5-0 for the second time in the last three years. The Penn State Nittany Lions have won their last six home games. Sean Clifford is completing 66 percent of his passes for 1,179 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. Clifford has seven touchdown passes in his last three games. KJ Hamler and Jahan Dotson have combined for 516 receiving yards and five touchdowns while Pat Freiermuth has 12 receptions. The Penn State Nittany Lions ground game is averaging 193.5 yards per contest, and Journey Brown leads the way with 196 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Penn State is allowing 7.5 points and 274.5 yards per game. Jan Johnson leads the Penn State Nittany Lions with 22 tackles, Yetur Gross-Matos has 3.5 sacks and John Reid has two interceptions.

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The Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Nittany Lions are 17-6-2 ATS in their last 25 home games, 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 conference games and 27-11-2 ATS in their last 40 games overall. The Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Penn State and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings. The over is 4-1 in Boilermakers last 5 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 conference games.

The Purdue Boilermakers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games as double-digit road underdogs. The Penn State Nittany Lions have split their last 10 games ATS as double-digit home favorites. Purdue has been money ATS as big road underdogs these last couple of years and is still a decent team without its starting quarterback in Sindelar. The Penn State Nittany Lions have taken care of business up to this point, but they can be lackluster at times, and this could be a lookahead spot with a road game against Iowa on deck. I don't love this game at all, but there's some value with Purdue and the points. I just don't trust PSU and this many touchdowns with a big game next week on tap.

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Randy’s Pick Purdue Boilermakers +27.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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