New Mexico State vs. Liberty - 10/5/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New Mexico State vs. Liberty - 10/5/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Liberty Flames (3-2) at New Mexico State Aggies (0-5)

College Football: Saturday, October 5, 2019 at 8:00 pm (Aggie Memorial Stadium)

The Line: New Mexico State Aggies +6 -- Over/Under: 60 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Liberty Flames and New Mexico State Aggies meet Saturday in college football action at Aggie Memorial Stadium.

The Liberty Flames look for their first road win to build on a three-game winning streak. The Liberty Flames have lost their last five road games. Stephen Calvert is completing 62 percent of his passes for 1,396 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Calvert has eight touchdown passes in his last three games. Antonio Gandy-Golden and Kevin Shaa have combined for 885 receiving yards and six touchdowns while DJ Stubbs has 16 receptions. The Liberty Flames ground game is averaging 126 yards per contest, and Frankie Hickson leads the way with 248 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Liberty is allowing 22.6 points and 420.2 yards per game. Elijah Benton leads the Liberty Flames with 34 tackles, Jessie Lemonier has 4.5 sacks and Bejour Wilson has two interceptions.

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The New Mexico State Aggies are desperate for a victory after a rough 0-5 start to the season. The New Mexico State Aggies have lost five of their last seven home games. Josh Adkins is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 1,210 yards, six touchdowns and nine interceptions. Adkins has two or more interceptions in three of his last five games. Tony Nicholson and OJ Clark have combined for 506 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Naveon Mitchell has nine receptions. The New Mexico State Aggies ground game is averaging 97.2 yards per contest, and Jason Huntley leads the way with 300 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, New Mexico State is allowing 47.2 points and 520.4 yards per game. Javahn Fergurson leads the New Mexico State Aggies with 49 tackles, Donovan King has one sack and Austin Perkins has two interceptions.

The Flames are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The Aggies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October and 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Flames last 4 games overall. The under is 5-2 in Aggies last 7 games overall.

The Liberty Flames are 1-2 ATS as a road favorite since moving up to the FBS ranks. The New Mexico State Aggies have failed to cover six of their last nine home games as a favorite. New Mexico State probably isn't as bad as its record and numbers indicate when you consider its played Washington State, Alabama and decent teams from the MWC. However, New Mexico State hasn't come close to putting up a fight defensively, and when it's that bad, you get a team that can't cover numbers. The Liberty Flames are riding a three-game winning streak and have a quarterback in Calvert who seems to be easing into things and becoming more of a playmaker. I'll back Liberty and the reasonable chalk. 

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Randy’s Pick Liberty Flames -6

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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