Navy vs. Air Force - 10/5/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Air Force Falcons (3-1) at Navy Midshipmen (2-1)
College Football: Saturday, October 5, 2019 at 3:30 pm (Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium)
The Line: Navy Midshipmen +2.5 -- Over/Under: 46.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
The Air Force Falcons and the Navy Midshipmen meet in a week 6 college football matchup from Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Air Force Falcons will look to pick up some steam after a 41-24 win over San Jose State in their last outing. Donald Hammond III has thrown for 369 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 56.3% passing while also rushing for a team-high 5 rushing TDs and 135 rushing yards this season. Kadin Remsberg leads Air Force in rushing with 342 yards and 3 touchdowns while Taven Birdow has 338 yards and 2 touchdowns. Timothy Jackson, Christian Mallard and Joshua Stoner each have 100+ rushing yards this season while Geraud Sanders leads Air Force in receiving with 13 grabs for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns while Benjamin Waters has 4 catches for 111 yards. Jeremy Fejedelem leads Air Force with 31 total tackles including 20 solo tackles and 1.5 sacks this season. As a team, Air Force is averaging 444 yards of total offense and 34.5 points per game while allowing 304.8 yards of total defense and 21 points per game against this season.
The Navy Midshipmen will look to rebound after a 35-23 loss to Memphis in their last outing to drop to 2-1 this year. Malcolm Perry has thrown for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns on 65.4% passing while leading the Midshipmen in rushing with 275 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. Nelson Smith has 167 rushing yards and 3 TDs while CJ Williams and Keoni-Kordell Makekau each have 100+ rushing yards this season. Williams also leads Navy in receiving with 117 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns this season. Defensively, Diego Fagot leads Navy with 17 total tackles including a team-high 12 solo tackles while Nizaire Cromartie has 1.5 sacks this season. As a team, Navy is averaging 457.3 yards of total offense including the most rushing yards per game this season, averaging 344.7 rushing yards per game as well as 36.7 points per game while allowing 251.7 yards of total defense and 17.3 points per game against this season.
Air Force is 21-5 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games and 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a win while the under is 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win. Navy is 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 home games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall while the under is 23-11 in their last 34 games following a loss. Air Force is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams but just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams at Navy.
This entire pick revolves around the status of Navy QB Malcolm Perry, who is questionable at the time of posting this article. Mainly because obviously QB is one of, if not the most important position in the option offense. With that said, I’m going to go under the assumption that Perry plays until I hear otherwise and if that’s the case, I’m taking the points with Navy in a game I see the Midshipmen winning outright. Air Force is much improved and have had some solid showings this season, but the Middies are the best in the country running the football and have had the bulk of the success at home against Air Force over the years.