Georgia State vs. Arkansas State - 10/5/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Georgia State vs. Arkansas State - 10/5/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-2) at Georgia State Panthers (2-2)

College Football: Saturday, October 5, 2019 at 3:30 pm (Georgia State Stadium)

The Line: Georgia State Panthers +7.5 -- Over/Under: 72 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Georgia State Panthers meet in a week 6 Sun Belt conference college football tilt from GSU Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves will look to build on back-to-back wins after a 50-43 road win over Troy in their last outing. Logan Bonner led A-State with 1,052 passing yards but will be out for the remainder of the season with an injury to his throwing hand that required surgery. Layne Hatcher will fill in and has thrown for 493 yards, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 70% passing while Isaiah Azubuike and Marcel Murray are tied for the Arkansas State lead in rushing with 136 rushing yards while Ryan Graham is right behind with 134 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Omar Bayless leads the Red Wolves in receiving with 36 catches for 689 yards and 7 touchdowns while Jonathan Adams Jr. has 29 receptions for 356 yards and Kirk Merritt has 26 grabs for 312 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, B.J. Edmonds leads A-State with 37 total tackles including a team-high 22 solo tackles while Darreon Jackson and Tajhea Chambers each have 35 total tackles. William Bradley-King leads Arkansas State with 5 sacks while Forrest Merrill has 3.5 sacks this season. As a team, Arkansas State is averaging 432.8 yards of total offense and 32.8 points per game while allowing 500.4 yards of total defense and 36 points per game against this season.

The Georgia State Panthers will be out to rebound from back-to-back losses, falling to .500 at 2-2 with a 37-34 overtime loss to Texas State in their last outing. Dan Ellington has thrown for 846 yards, 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 62.5% passing while Tra Barnett leads the Panthers in rushing with 329 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Ellington has also rushed for 244 rushing yards while Seth Paige and Destin Coates are the other 100+ yard rushers for GSU this season. Cornelius McCoy leads Georgia State in receiving with 21 catches for 265 yards and 3 touchdowns while Sam Pinckney has 16 catches for 192 yards and 2 TDs and Devin Gentry has 107 receiving yards this season. Defensively, Trajan Stephens-McQueen leads Georgia State with 41 total tackles including a team-high 19 solo tackles while Ed Curney has 31 total tackles and a pair of sacks. Dontae Wilson also has a pair of sacks for the Panthers this year. As a team, Georgia State is averaging 419.2 yards of total offense and 32.5 points per game while allowing 496.5 yards of total defense and 41.5 points per game against this season.

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Arkansas State is 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 conference games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on turf while the under is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. Georgia State is 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games, 4-14-3 ATS in their last 21 games overall and 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record while the over is 5-2 in their last 7 games following a loss. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

Getting a home dog can be tempting, especially when you consider how potent both offenses can be and how both defenses are prone to giving up points. However, Georgia State didn’t look great against Texas State while Arkansas State’s two losses came to a pair of undefeated schools in SMU and perennial playoff contender Georgia. The road team has also had all of the recent success ATS between the two, so I’ll lay the points with Arkansas State here.

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Chris’s Pick Arkansas State -7.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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