It has been my experience that the sporting community can be reactive in nature. The typical “band wagon jumping” on who's hot can be effective in the short term but overall it is a strategy that results in lost value.
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|NBA||6 – 4 – 0||60.00%||+ 145|
|Soccer||2 – 0 – 0||100.00%||+ 200|
|MMA||6 – 3 – 0||66.67%||+ 275|
|Home Cookin'||MLB||Oakland Athletics (12-5) at Los Angeles Angels (6-11)||2020-08-11 21:40:00||Los Angeles Angels: -152||-||Win|
|NO DOUBT BLOWOUT||MLB||Kansas City Royals (7-10) at Cincinnati Reds (7-9)||2020-08-11 18:40:00||Cincinnati Reds: -174||-||Win|
|National Treasure||MLB||Washington Nationals (5-7) at New York Mets (7-10)||2020-08-11 19:10:00||Washington Nationals: -140||-||Win|
|WRONG TEAM FAVORED||NHL||Calgary Flames (39-28-7) at Dallas Stars (38-26-8)||2020-08-11 17:30:00||Calgary Flames: +103||-||Win|
|WRONG TEAM FAVORED||MLB||Arizona Diamondbacks (6-10) at Colorado Rockies (11-4)||2020-08-10 20:40:00||Colorado Rockies: -132||-||Loss|
|NO DOUBT BLOWOUT||NBA||Indiana Pacers (43-27) at Miami Heat (43-27)||2020-08-10 20:00:00||Miami Heat: -170||-||Win|
|Pitcher's Duel (CLE@CWS)||MLB||Cleveland Indians (9-7) at Chicago White Sox (8-7)||2020-08-09 19:08:00||Under: 7.5 -115||-||Loss|
|Home Cookin'||MLB||Arizona Diamondbacks (6-9) at San Diego Padres (8-7)||2020-08-09 16:10:00||San Diego Padres: -170||-||Win|
|Pitcher's Duel (Laa@Tex)||MLB||Los Angeles Angels (5-10) at Texas Rangers (5-8)||2020-08-09 14:35:00||Under: 8.5 +105||-||Loss|
|Pitcher's Duel (HOU@OAK)||MLB||Houston Astros (6-8) at Oakland Athletics (11-4)||2020-08-09 16:10:00||Under: 8.5 -115||-||Loss|
Handicapping History: For as long as I can remember I have been playing and making money in fantasy pools and online betting. My greatest strength has always been numbers, combine that with my sports affinity and I was ahead of the competition. In the summer of 2012, my betting success landed me my first opportunity as an online sports betting expert and I launched a 5‐0 opening night start in MLB and never looked back. The highlight of that year was hitting 14 straight football picks and raking serious profits for the loyal customers along the way. 2020 started with a bang with +10,000 units earned in February. With nearly all the sports world on hold, I have focused on UFC recently and have earned serious profits with a 6‐1 record with winning picks on Dustin Poirier, Raquel Pennington, Jordan Espinosa, Alex Perez, Cody Garbrandt and Gilbert Burns with his huge upset over Tyrone Woodley.
System Used in Handicapping: It has been my experience that the sporting community can be reactive in nature. The typical “band wagon jumping” on who's hot can be effective in the short term but overall it is a strategy that results in lost value. For me, the ultimate strategy is to combine short term and long term procedures to develop a system that covers all facets of the decision making process.
A major aspect of my education and work experience has centered around business valuation. The topic encompasses economics, statistics and accounting, all of which I have studied and excelled at. In a nut shell, business valuation consists of breaking down companies into separate components, using techniques to analyze the components under certain conditions, comparing to benchmarks and assigning a value based on the results. The techniques I have learned have allowed me to develop a two tier strategy to keep me ahead of the betting field.
The first is the macro approach (overall, big picture, long term), in the off season of each major sport I will value each organization based on a number of criteria I have developed. The value of the company is then translated into a win/loss percentage for the season. A quick summary of the criteria I include are:
1. Past records (at least 3‐5 year trend)
2. Ownership, management and coaching changes/philosophies/financial capabilities 3. Off season changes 4. Player development (farm system/draft results) 5. Locker room dynamic (players in contract years) 6. Upcoming schedule difficulty
As the season begins I develop the micro approach. This approach involves keeping up to date with the daily grind, watching all the games, following the hot and cold streaks, scheduling, injury updates, match up ratings etc. Basically everything that goes into analyzing a sound pick based on current surroundings.
This system I developed has been used by business analysts to value companies on the stock markets of the world for many generations. Prepare and develop a thorough valuation of a company and compare the cyclical nature of the stock market with the valuation of the company and buy low and sell high. Develop a thorough valuation of the sports organization at the start of the season and compare the cyclical nature of the team and the player (hot and cold streaks) to buy low and sell high.
Rating System: My ratings system is basic and easy to understand. The scale I use is 6‐10 with 10 being the highest. I will never offer a rating lower than a 6, I don't bet when I don't consider the odds in my favor and I wouldn't expect you to. Most bids will be in the 7‐9 range, if and when you see a 10 rating from me, I truly consider this a lock. Most of my bets are centered around value much as I described above. I may consider one match up more favorable than another but worth less value due to the spread or the odds. My main objective is to make us both the most money possible and my ratings system will reflect that.
Favorite Sport to Wager: Baseball has always been my sport of choice. Pitching is such a key, I love to break down match ups and bullpens and I do particularly well with Over/Under betting for baseball. Football is a close second, I find my macro/micro system of assigning values to football organizations works very well for the NFL 16 game season.
Quote: Building and maintaining an effective system for handicapping sports takes hard work and dedication. Unless you pay me to do it for you!