Luis Ortiz vs. Deontay Wilder - 11/23/19 Boxing Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Sarah Stier-USA TODAY Sports
Deontay Wilder (41-0-1) vs. Luis Ortiz (31-1)
Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 11:00 pm (MGM Grand Garden Arena)
The Line: Wilder -716 / Ortiz +599 -- Over/Under:
Deontay Wilder and Luis Ortiz fight Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena for the World Boxing Council World Heavyweight Title.
Deontay Wilder enters this fight with a 41-0-1 record that includes 40 knockouts. Wilder has won six of his last seven fights, and he’s coming off a May win over Dominic Breazeale. Wilder redeemed himself after a questionable showing against Tyson Fury, as he put Breazeale to sleep in the first round with a ridiculous right hand. I had some questions about Wilder after his last two bouts where he arguably got outboxed in both bouts, but his overwhelming power and one-pound knockout potential always suckers me back in. Wilder is a 33-year-old American who stands at 6’7”, has an 83-inch reach and an orthodox stance. There’s nothing to be said about Wilder that already hasn’t been mentioned, as he has a massive frame and punching power that goes toe-to-toe with anybody in the history of the sport. You can breakdown the questionable technique, subpar footwork and at times extremely wild and inaccurate, but there’s no counter for having bricks for hands and only needing to land one shot. Nobody has the knockout potential like Wilder, and it’s good enough for you to forget about a lot of the flaws in his game. This will be Wilder’s fourth career fight in Nevada.
Luis Ortiz enters this fight with a 31-1 record that includes 26 knockouts. Ortiz has won five of his last six fights, and he’s coming off a March win over Christian Hammer. Ortiz is coming off his first decision victory since his 2016 bout with Malik Scott and has now won three straight fights since the first meeting with Wilder. While he didn’t get the stoppage, Ortiz controlled the pace of the fight, worked the body well and showed he still has a good enough gas tank at his age to be effective throughout a full fight. Ortiz is 40 years old, stands at 6’4”, has a 78-inch reach and a southpaw stance. Ortiz is simply a technically sound heavyweight who does more than look to land that one haymaker, as he works behind his jab well, works the body and often does some of his best work on counters. Ortiz also moves well for a guy his size, slipping punches and usually being solid defensively. You rarely see Ortiz eat a clean shot from his opponent, and he deserves props for surviving 10 rounds with Wilder before dropping. The question now is how much will age be a factor for Ortiz, as fighters usually age like milk and Ortiz is no longer a spring chicken. This will be Ortiz’s second career fight in Nevada.
Ortiz is super underrated in the heavyweight division and has been for years. He also hung around with Wilder for much of that fight and it would have been interesting if it went to the judges. There’s a reason why Wilder is giving Ortiz a rematch, even if it’s not what the fans wanted. With that said, Ortiz is now another year older, has taken more punishment, and he’s fighting somebody who is more confident. Wilder got stronger in the later rounds of the first meeting and started to find holes in Ortiz’s defense, which you have to think he’ll be able to build on that from the start in the rematch, leading to a more one-sided fight. Tagging Fury late and with the way the fight against Breazeale went down, Wilder has never been this confident in his career and that’s scary.
I have a ton of respect for Ortiz, and Wilder is beatable as I’ve said countless times, but the American should get another stoppage under his belt.